How to Use SCORES to Win Online Jackpots
The Online Jackpot Score is a numerical rating that shows relative progressive jackpot growth in percentage with respect to its average hit value. The Scores allow you to compare current progressive jackpot values and find the progressive game with, probably, the best odds (expected return).
The Wheels/Reels Have No Memory!
Note: the probabilities of winning a progressive jackpot are EQUAL on every spin, no matter how far the jackpot is grown. And
that's the name of the game -
the probabilities are equal but the rewards ARE NOT!
The probability of hitting $1M Mega jackpot is the same as of winning €6M because the wheels has no memory and outcome of every spin is random.
When the jackpot has risen a certain level the odds turn in players' favour. This level can be calculated for most blackjack or caribbean poker games...
Unlike table games, you would hardly find the exact odds of progressive slot machines. However, using sufficient amount of stats on real jackpot hits you can calculate average hit value and current jackpot SCORE - the most descriptive factor that reflects your ODDS.
Score Calculation
Score is a percentage of jackpot growth to it's historical hit values. Here is how we calculate our progressive jackpot Scores:
- Support a jackpot starts at $1000 (seed), and hits on average at $5000.
- The average increase in the jackpot before it hits is $5000 - $1000 = $4000.
- If the current jackpot is $7000, it has increased $6000 from its reset value.
- The Score of the jackpot at $7000 is ($6000 / $4000) * 100 = 150.
Probability of Hitting a Jackpot vs Score
Providing the jackpot can be hit at random on any spin and the average hit value corresponds to the Score of 100, we calculated the probabilities of
hitting a jackpot under a certain Score level and above the Score level.
Note: The below calculations are correct for the most popular Jackpot type 1 whose probability curve is a dropping exponent. After examination of the real online casino jackpots we found that only about half of the jackpots can be referred to the type 1. Other popular jackpot types - 2 and 3 - have much "smaller tails", so the probability of hitting such jackpots over, say, 200 Score level is much less (if any!) than the one you can see in the table below.
Hits vs Scores, Jackpot Type 1 (Exponent)
| Jackpot Score | Probability of Hitting Jackpot UNDER the Score, % | Probability of Hitting Jackpot ABOVE the Score, % (1 of x hits) |
| 100 | 63.2121 | 36.7879 (1 of 3) |
| 150 | 77.6870 | 22.3130 (1 of 4) |
| 180 | 83.4701 | 16.5299 (1 of 6) |
| 200 | 86.4665 | 13.5268 (1 of 7) |
| 220 | 88.9197 | 11.0803 (1 of 9) |
| 300 | 95.0213 | 4.97870 (1 of 20) |
| 400 | 98.1684 | 1.83156 (1 of 55) |
| 500 | 99.3262 | 0.67379 (1 of 148) |
| 600 | 99.7512 | 0.24788 (1 of 403) |
| 700 | 99.9088 | 0.09119 (1 of 1,096) |
| 800 | 99.9665 | 0.03355 (1 of 2,980) |
| 1000 | 99.99546 | 0.004540 (1 of 22,030) |
| 1200 | 99.99939 | 0.000614 (1 of 162,900) |
| 1500 | 99.99997 | 0.000031 (1 of 3,230,000) |
This table shows that 63.21% jackpots are hit before they even reach 100 Score level. Less than 13.53% jackpots are hit above 200 Score, just 1.83% jackpots are won above 400 Score... For example, if you want to see Mega Moolah Mega Jackpot at 400+ level (over $8M) you should wait for 12 years. Want $10M?... wait for 36 years! Well, $25M? Just wait for half a million years!!!
Even if you don't have a million years we can help you getting the highest odds with our jackpot monitoring system that currently tracks over 700 progressives. You can always find jackpots with over 200 or 300 Score levels. Sometimes jackpots reach 400 level but they do not stay there even 1.83% of time because at higher levels jackpots grow faster than average as players bet more actively.
Hits vs Scores, Jackpot Type 2 (Sum of 2 Exponents)
| Jackpot Score | Probability of Hitting Jackpot UNDER the Score, % | Probability of Hitting Jackpot ABOVE the Score, % (1 of x hits) |
| 100 | 59.3994 | 40.6006 (1 of 2.5) |
| 150 | 80.0852 | 19.9148 (1 of 5) |
| 180 | 87.4311 | 12.5689 (1 of 8) |
| 200 | 90.8422 | 9.15781 (1 of 11) |
| 220 | 93.3702 | 6.62976 (1 of 15) |
| 300 | 98.2649 | 1.73513 (1 of 58) |
| 400 | 99.6981 | 0.30192 (1 of 331) |
| 500 | 99.9501 | 0.04994 (1 of 2,002) |
| 600 | 99.9920 | 0.007988 (1 of 12,520) |
| 700 | 99.9988 | 0.001247 (1 of 80,190) |
| 800 | 99.99981 | 0.0001913 (1 of 522,700) |
| 1000 | 99.999995 | 0.00000433 (1 of 23,100,000) |
| 1200 | 99.99999990 | 0.000000094 (1 of 1,059,400,000) |
| 1500 | 99.99999999998 | 0.0000000021 (1 of 47,170,000,000) |
As you may see the probability of hitting a jackpot drops much faster with the growth of the jackpot for the Type 2. In fact, the Score of 800 for jackpot type 1 is a maximum you can see - this will be possible for 1 of every 3,000 hits. While the same Score for the jackpot type 2 will be about 530. The Score level of 400 for type 1 is equivalent of 300 for type 2 (seen once in 55-58 hits).
Triple Your Chances of Winning
The theoretical average Score of a jackpot is 69.3 (jackpot type 1). Our average jackpot Score for 700 jackpots (5 different types) floats between 72 and 73 level but you can always find games with 220+ Score and triple your jackpot odds and chances of winning.
Odds vs. Scores
Progressive games usually offers fixed regular winning combinations and growing progressive jackpot payout. Suppose an average slot machine has 95% average payback (RTP). Progressive slot will offer something like 90% payback when the jackpot is at it's lowest level (seed) and this figure will grow permanently with the jackpot growth. We would expect the payback percentage at an average jackpot level (Score=69.3) to be around average RTP for most slots - 95%.
The jackpot stays above the average hit value for about 20% of the time and nobody would like to play a slot with the average payback of substancially lower than 95%. That's why we would expect the odds will turn in the favour of player at about 200 - 250 Score level or a bit higher.
Note: we cannot guarantee the real odds because the games and softwares are programmed differently. But the stats are on our side. If you play various popular progressive jackpot games with high scores (over 200), you'll be in the money... or, at least, have much better than average odds.
If you look at some jackpot graphs you'll see that from a certain level some smaller jackpots start growing quickly until hit. Jackpot hunters find "grown", ready to blow jackpots and start actively playing until the pots are hit.
How to Play Group Jackpots?
Some online jackpots are offered in groups, like Marvel Hero Slots or Mega Moolah. As they hit separately, they all
have different Scores. You may look at the Score of the biggest jackpot first, but in most cases jackpots at different
levels pay comparable amounts of money and, sometimes, smallest jackpots in total pay more than biggest multi-million-dollar jackpots.
You can compare payouts using Average Hit Time & Average Jackpot Hit data of the corresponding jackpots. For example, Mega Moolah Mega (big) pays about 5 times more them Major (small), while Marvel Ultimate Power (big) pays 2 times less than Super Power (small). In general, we would advice looking at the average Score of all jackpot levels in order to choose the best game to play.
The progressive jackpots with the highest current Scores are listed here. Top 6 slot jackpots are shown on the right side bar on our site »
Popularity Issues
Game popularity is important factor. Some jackpots can hang out for years until hit.
So, if you really want to win a jackpot, you should find a relatively popular game or invest substantial amount of money.
Score reflects your ODDS, e.g. average payback percentage of the game. But if you don't win a jackpot, your payout rate will be much lower that on an average slot or casino game.
Start from smaller jackpots with high scores and reasonable average hit times.
